Economic Update 8-06-2025

Economic data included the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates steady for another meeting. On the positive side, U.S. GDP saw strong growth for the second quarter (albeit with caveats), and consumer sentiment improved. However, the employment situation report was far weaker than expected, with several downward revisions, job openings declined, and the pace of home price appreciation continued to decelerate.

Stocks fell back last week globally along with more U.S. tariff announcements and negative labor market data. Bonds fared well domestically, as rates fell, but foreign bonds were mixed as the dollar strengthened. Commodities were also mixed as oil prices rose but fell in other groups.

U.S. stocks lost ground last week, resulting from trade news and a weak labor market report. Markets started positively on Monday with the weekend news of a US-EU trade deal, where the EU accepts tariffs of 15% but levies a 0% rate in return, as well as agreements to purchase American energy and defense supplies. Though, by Thursday evening, the President signed an executive order to raise tariffs on most trading partners, to take effect Aug. 7, which markets took poorly on Friday. Otherwise, updated tariffs included Canada (25% to 35%, on non-treaty items), South Korea (15%), India (25%), Brazil (50%), certain copper products (50%, but not on all), several other countries at 30% (such as Switzerland), while keeping a 10% baseline on everyone else. This also included a 90-day reprieve for Mexico, allowing for further analysis and negotiations. The overall tariff rate picture remains convoluted, with markets assuming twists and turns as negotiated announcements are made.

Economic Update 7-28-2025

Economic data for the week included strength in S&P services PMI, and new home sales; these offset weaker results in S&P manufacturing PMI, durable goods orders, existing home sales, and the well-watched index of leading economic indicators.

Equities saw gains around the world, led by Japanese stocks. Bonds also fared positively, as interest rates declined slightly, with foreign bonds led by a weaker dollar. Commodities fell back as oil and natural gas prices declined.

U.S. stocks saw another week of gains, following decent corporate earnings on net, and the U.S. administration’s trade agreements with Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines, in addition to negotiations with the European Union ahead of the Aug. 1 deadline for 30% tariffs on the latter. (The European discussions appeared to be completed over the past weekend, resulting in a 15% tariff deal. The U.S. talks with China continue, with reports of another 3-month extension to provide additional time for a potential deal.)

Every sector ended in the positive last week, led by health care up over 3%, followed by materials, industrials, and communications, up over 2%. Consumer staples was the laggard, when ended roughly flat for the week. Real estate also gained over 2% along with lower long-term interest rates.

Economic Update 7-21-2025

Economic data included gains in industrial production, retail sales, housing starts, and consumer sentiment. Inflation came in a bit higher than expected on the consumer side, surpassing the minimal change in producer inflation.

Equities were mixed globally, with gains in the U.S. and emerging markets offset by declines in foreign developed. Bonds were little-changed, along with minimal change in yields. Commodities were also mixed, as crude oil prices fell back.

U.S. stocks experienced a positive week, as positive economic data and in-line inflation were coupled with a decent start to earnings season that outweighed continued trade uncertainty. As the week began, markets began to digest the potential 30% tariff on the EU, which would put a significant strain on European growth, but perhaps not as much as the headline figure suggests.

By sector, gains were strongest in technology (helped by Nvidia receiving permission to sell AI chips to China) and utilities; these were offset by declines in energy, healthcare, and materials. Real estate also gained a fraction of a percent. Earnings season for Q2 began to ramp up, with 12% of firms now having reported, per FactSet, and higher-profile early positive surprises from JP Morgan Chase and Citigroup in the financial sector, as well as Pepsi and Netflix. Of firms reporting, nearly 85% have shown positive revenue and/or earnings surprises, with the blended earnings growth rate having risen to 5.6% from just under 5% at quarter-end and again led by communication and technology. With a substantial number of reports in the coming weeks, expected growth remains just below long-term trend levels.

Economic Update 7-14-2025

In a strangely light week for economic news, jobless claims were mixed, while the FOMC minutes from the June meeting pointed to a continued ‘wait and see’ mindset around potential tariff inflation impacts and labor market conditions.

Equities were mixed globally, with the U.S. generally faring best. Bonds were lower as interest rates ticked up. Commodities were also mixed, with oil and gold higher, while other areas declined.

U.S. stocks started weaker and weren’t able to gain any ground through the week. Tariff news again dominated other news, in a week of few economic releases. By sector, energy and utilities led the way with gains, while losses were concentrated in financials, communications, and consumer staples. Real estate also lost a bit of ground for the week.

The July 8 deadline from the 90-day Apr. 8 ‘Liberation Day’ featured an extension until Aug. 1, which is not that far off. Treasury Secretary Bessent noted that countries will receive an extension if they continue to negotiate in good faith, and the government wants to see negotiations wrapped up by Labor Day. At the same time, the President announced several updated tariffs, including 25% on South Korea and Japan, as well as varying rates on Canada and several emerging nations. This included a proposed 50% tariff on copper, as well as 50% on Brazil, tied to legal proceedings there related to former President Bolsonaro.

Economic Update 7-7-2025

In a holiday-shortened week, economic data included improvement in both ISM manufacturing and services surveys. The monthly employment situation report was positive at the surface, but skewed by a few categories within it, muting the impact.

Equities experienced gains in the U.S., largely due to tax legislation passing, while international stocks were mixed. Bonds fared positively, as credit spreads tightened. Commodities gained with higher prices in oil and precious metals.

U.S. stocks saw gains last week, with little trade news and unsurprising economic data for the most part, but investors were watching the progress of the Congressional budget reconciliation bill, which was passed by the Senate on Tues. and the House Thurs. afternoon. This seemed to help equity sentiment along with the decent jobs report that continues to show tariff fears haven’t done too much damage to the economy (and earnings). Despite little trade news, the 90-day tariff pause is due to expire this coming week on Jul. 9, with market expectations for an extension. Stock earnings report for Q2 will begin mid-month, with an expected deceleration from the robust Q1 pace.

Economic Update 6-30-2025

Geopolitical events continued to dominate last week, with a strong U.S. missile attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, followed by a limited retaliatory response, and ceasefire. Economic data included a downward revision for Q1 U.S. GDP and higher jobless claims, mixed housing data and consumer sentiment, but a sharp gain in durable goods orders.

Stocks saw strong positive returns of a few percent across the globe, with Middle East tensions abating, optimism on trade deals, and economic data otherwise stable. Bonds also saw gains with falling interest rates. Commodities fell back sharply, led by crude oil, with fewer concerns over supply disruptions caused by the Israel-Iran conflict.

U.S. stocks began the week strongly, following Operation Midnight Hammer, during which U.S. air forces struck several Iran nuclear facilities. Despite some consternation early Monday about Iran’s retaliatory missile attacks on U.S. forces in Qatar and Iraq, the limited nature of the Iranian response (with no reported casualties) alluded to an expected intention of saving face but not escalating further. A truce later Monday helped stock sentiment as well, with the President encouraging both Israel and Iran to cease military operations. On the financial side, later in the week, the U.S. Treasury announced a deal with G-7 allies that will exclude U.S. companies from some foreign-imposed taxes (OECD Pillar 2) in exchange for removing the pending Congressional tax bill’s Section 899 (“revenge tax”) provisions, which were intended to penalize foreign investors, businesses, and governments with holdings in the U.S. (It was assumed that seeking a deal was the true intention of inserting that section into the bill in the first place.) Reports that the U.S. and China were completing a new trade deal on Friday also helped investor sentiment. Some members of the Federal Reserve showing an openness to rate cuts was naturally taken positively as well.

Last week’s news featured the Federal Reserve keeping short-term policy interest rates steady at their June meeting. Economic data included weaker retail sales, industrial production, housing starts, and the index of leading economic indicators. Jobless claims were little changed.

Equities were mixed globally last week, with a variety of global influences. Bonds fared positively as interest rates declined. Commodities were driven higher by energy prices, tied to Middle East concerns.

U.S. stocks were little changed on net for the week, with most eyes still focused on potential escalation in the Middle East between Israel and Iran, with the U.S. administration pointing to possible negotiations that seemed to reduce fears somewhat for the time being. (The focused U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear enrichment facilities happened on Saturday night, so will likely be a key sentiment factor in the coming week.) Otherwise, a mix of economic data and the Fed staying the course also provided little catalyst for extreme stock price movements. However, later in the week, Fed Gov. Waller noted that rate cuts could be considered sooner than later, with “We could do this as early as July.” By sector, energy, technology, and financials led with gains, while health care (Lilly and J&J primarily), materials, and utilities declined. Small caps outpaced large caps for the week. Real estate fell back by a few basis points.

Economic Update 6-16-2025

Economic data included consumer and producer price inflation coming in a bit cooler than expected, although both remain above long-term trend. Consumer confidence also improved, in keeping with paused tariff policies. However, continuing jobless claims kept rising, which could be due to some seasonal effects and/or labor markets softening further.

After starting positively, equities reversed course and fell in the U.S. and foreign developed markets, largely in response to escalation of the Israel-Iran military conflict. Bonds gained as yields fell back, especially abroad with a weaker dollar. Commodities gained as crude oil prices spiked, due to the same Middle East escalation concerns.

U.S. stocks were positive for most of the week, with a mix of influences, but ended down on net. Early in the week, investors reacted positively to a short London meeting between the U.S. and China, which resulted in no real breakthroughs, but getting the “negativity out,” as Commerce Secretary Lutnick put it, perhaps providing a restart point for further talks. The Chinese have been increasingly using exports of rare earth minerals as leverage (they aren’t really rare insofar as finding them in the earth’s crust goes, but the processing of them is, and they’re critical for modern technological devices like computers and phones). The Administration also indicated that an extension of the current 90-day tariff pause was possible for countries negotiating in “good faith.” Markets reacted positively to some extent on Wed. to the cooler CPI report; however, this was seen as making the Fed’s job a bit tougher as to the push-and-pull between higher and lower rate policy. However, all was undone as stocks fell back by Fri. morning in response to Israel’s strikes on Iran, which raised geopolitical concerns.

Economic Update 6-9-2025

Economic data included stronger job openings, while the ISM manufacturing and services PMI indexes weakened. The employment situation report showed in showing growth, but prior revisions downward, so generally neutral.

Equities gained globally, with few surprises on the trade front, and unsurprising economic data. Bonds fell back as interest rates ticked higher. Commodities gained, led by a sharp rise in crude oil prices.

U.S. stocks fared positively again last week, with small caps leading large caps. While trade tension between the U.S. and China remains, a late week phone call between the two leaders “resulted in a very positive conclusion for both countries,” as the President put it, and buoyed sentiment. Further discussions are scheduled in London this week. The Friday jobs reports, not too hot nor too cold, also was taken positively by markets. Overall, the U.S. stock market volatility from prior months appears to have calmed down a bit, with a general consensus that trade deals are expected to be in the works, and the maximum tariff rates won’t end up being a reality. On the other hand, U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs doubled to 50% last week.

On a holiday-shortened week, economic data included a slight upgrade to Q1 U.S. GDP growth, and improvement in personal income, spending, and consumer sentiment, while durable orders fell back.

U.S. stocks saw a positive week, outperforming the rest of the world, due to variety of trade-related news items. Bonds fared positively as interest rates fell back in the U.S. Commodities fell across the board, with crude oil prices remaining range-bound.

U.S. stocks ended positively, after having started off strongly on Monday following the announced one-month reprieve of the 50% EU tariff, in addition to an improvement in consumer sentiment (which has been hard to come by as of late). The Wed. U.S. trade court ruling against the administration’s tariffs resulted in a rally early Thurs., although the gain was tempered, considering that appeals are likely, and it is unknown how other tariffs might be reconfigured to fall under other legal authority. Again, optimism is present, but uncertainty remains. Over the past few weeks, markets have already appeared to discount the worst of the tariffs, celebrating the pauses, and assuming deals will be made in coming months to lower the overall punitive rate. By Fri., trade tensions with China had again ramped up with the President’s claim that agreements were violated and Treasury Secretary Bessent noting that U.S.-China trade talks were “a bit stalled.”

Economic data included gains in both manufacturing and services PMI measures, as well as in new home sales, while existing home sales fell back. The index of leading economic indicators continued to deteriorate, although it still doesn’t point to recession at this time.

Equities declined in the U.S., but fared better overseas, in keeping with 2025 year-to-date trends. Bonds similarly lost ground domestically with higher long-term interest rates, while foreign were mixed. Commodities were also mixed, with gains in metals offset by declines in energy.

U.S. stocks fell back last week, with every sector ending in the negative. More defensive consumer staples and communication services fared slightly better, with minimal declines, while energy and technology suffered the sharpest losses upwards of 3-4% (the latter led downward by Apple, as specific tariffs on phones were threatened). Real estate fell by over -3% as well, due to interest rate movements.

Economic Update 5-19-2025

Economic news last week included inflation metrics showing improvement on both a consumer and producer level. Also, data included slightly higher retail sales and housing starts, unchanged industrial production, but weaker consumer sentiment that continues a negative trend.

Equities gained globally, as U.S.-China trade negotiations lowered chances of economic slowing. Bonds were mixed, with yields higher but credit spreads tighter. Commodities were also mixed, with crude oil and industrial metals higher.

U.S. stocks earned strong returns last week, beginning with the S&P 500 rising over 3% on Monday with news from the prior weekend of substantial progress with China on a de-escalation of trade tensions. This included a suspension of earlier tariff rates for 90 days for a continuation of talks, with U.S. tariff rates on China falling from 145% down to 30% (and China-on-U.S. tariffs reduced from 125% to 10%). Cooler inflation also helped sentiment a bit, although many see those prior-month figures as being on borrowed time if/when tariff impacts creep through. Every sector ended positively last week, led by substantial gains of nearly 8% in both technology (led by Nvidia) and consumer discretionary (led by Tesla), while normally-defensive health care gained only a few tenths of a percent (completely due to weakness in UnitedHealth). Real estate also gained about a percent, despite higher yields.

Economic Update 5-12-2025

Last week, the Federal Reserve kept policy interest rates unchanged, as expected, along with mixed economic data. Within the minimal data released last week, ISM services rose a bit, further into expansion.

Equities were mixed last week, with declines in the U.S. large cap offset by gains in small cap and in Europe. Bonds pulled back with higher interest rates, with falling recession fears. Commodities were also mixed, with gains in energy and precious metals.

U.S. large cap stocks fell back last week, while small caps saw gains. Sector results were mixed, with gains of a percent in industrials and consumer discretionary offset by a -4% drop in health care from several disappointing quarterly reports. Real estate also fell back by nearly a percent, due to higher yields. These results came along with an improvement in sentiment surrounding apparent progress the U.S. administration is making toward lowering quoted maximum tariffs last month. This included a Thursday announcement of a trade deal reached with the U.K. in addition to expected progress with Chinese negotiations taking place in Switzerland, although the final outcome for that key relationship remains quite unclear. (S&P futures were up several percent as a slashing of tariffs was announced this morning.) Congressional discussions about extending the current tax policy set to expire at the end of 2025 has also been ramping up, with rumors mixed about the imposition of a higher rate on millionaire earners.

Economic Update 5-5-2025

Economic data for the week included U.S. GDP growth for Q1 coming in negative, as well as weaker manufacturing, construction spending, and consumer sentiment. On the positive side, home prices continued to rise, albeit at a slower rate, while the employment situation report came in a bit better than expected, still showing growth.

Equities saw gains globally, buoyed by positive earnings and hopes for U.S. trade deals. Bonds fell back along with higher interest rates and a stronger U.S. dollar. Commodities fell back along with weaker crude oil demand expectations.

U.S. stocks rose for the second straight week, with nine straight positive days. However, the S&P 500 price index is still down -7% from the Feb. 19 peak. By sector, industrials, technology, and communications saw the strongest gains, over 4%, while energy was the only sector in decline, with sentiment tied to falling crude oil prices, and minimal gains for defensive consumer staples and health care. Real estate also gained over 3%, despite higher interest rates.

Economic Update 4-28-2025

Economic data included a rise in durable goods orders and new home sales. On the negative side, existing home sales declined, as did consumer sentiment and the index of leading economic indicators.

Stocks saw gains globally last week, with some further optimism about U.S. trade deals coming to pass, including a de-escalation of U.S.-China tensions, and a walkback of the President’s threat to fire the Chair of the Federal Reserve. Bonds fared positively along with falling yields, related to some reduction in inflation fears. Commodities were mixed, with energy falling with high supply and gold flows pulling back as global tensions abated a bit.

U.S. stocks rose sharply last week, despite Monday starting off poorly, with the President’s comments about firing Fed Chair Powell causing some consternation, as noted earlier. In typical recent back-and-forth fashion, Tuesday saw a recovery along with a quick walkback on the Powell firing talk, along with Treasury Secretary Bessent’s comments that alluded to tariff de-escalation, with current levels at an “unsustainable” path. There were further hints that the 145% rate on China won’t persist as the administration expects to reach a deal “in the very near future,” and the President intending to be “very nice” to China.

On a Good Friday-shortened week, economic data included gains in retail sales, while industrial production and housing starts fell back.

Equities experienced a slightly mellower week compared to the one prior, ending lower for U.S. large cap stocks, but a positive week for U.S. small caps and foreign developed markets overall. Bonds fared positively as interest rates fell back. Commodities also fared positively in several areas, including precious metals and energy.

U.S. stocks settled down from the volatility of the prior week, although it was relative, ending in the negative on net, although small cap stocks saw gains. By sector, energy led with gains of over 5%, followed by materials and more defensive consumer staples and utilities. On the negative side were declines of over a percent in technology (largely Nvidia and Microsoft), consumer discretionary (Amazon, Starbucks, and Tesla), and communications. Nvidia (along with a group of related companies) was hampered by news that its specialized H20 chips, quality-restricted to satisfy prior export limitations to China, could be disallowed and placed in same category as other unavailable specialized chips. Real estate also gained over 5% along with lower yields across the U.S. Treasury curve.

Economic Update 4-14-2025

Economic data included a significant pause in the U.S. administration’s total tariff policy, resulting in some relief of recession fears for now. Consumer price inflation came in slower than expected, with the year-over-year rates also declining, as did producer price inflation to some degree. Consumer sentiment remained poor, with inflation expectations rising sharply.

Global stock markets experienced one of the more volatile weeks in many years, but ended on a positive note largely due to Wednesday’s gains as a pause for some tariffs was announced. Bonds fell sharply due to a spike in longer-term U.S. Treasury yields. Commodities were mixed to higher, helped by a falling dollar and flight to quality in precious metals.

U.S. stocks earned surprisingly solid positive returns on net last week, with several daily price swings dominated by Wednesday’s explosive gains. Sector results were led by technology (up nearly 10%), industrials, and financials, while energy and defensive consumer staples and health care lagged with far lesser gains of a few percent. Real estate declined only slightly, despite the spike in yields.

U.S. stocks haven’t experienced this much day-to-day (or hour-to-hour) volatility in years, by some measures since the fall of 1987, Great Financial Crisis in 2008, and 2020 pandemic—comparisons that have unnerved many investors. The primary driver has obviously been the ‘uncertainty’ and real-time changes in the U.S. administration’s tariff policy. Practically daily, these have included steadfast or escalations in tariff stances corresponding to drawdowns and signs of relief or pause reverting to temporary euphoria. Based on estimates from Goldman Sachs, the ending tariff rate could well remain far higher than it was, but stopping at a weighted average of around 15%, as opposed to the earlier estimates of 20-25%. So, a strain on the economy and inflation no doubt, but not quite as bad as the worst fears.

Economic Update 4-07-2025

Economic data included the announcement of substantial global tariffs by the U.S. administration, which were taken negatively worldwide, but especially in the U.S. Other releases included a weakening of ISM manufacturing and services activity, and JOLTS job openings. The Friday employment situation report came in stronger than expected, with reversals of some earlier seasonal effects.

Equities suffered their worst week since the pandemic, reacting negatively to the U.S. administration’s tariff news. However, government bonds fared positively, as long-term yields fell sharply. Commodities also lost ground across the board, with the combination of uncertain trade and growth impacts.

U.S. stocks began the week on another negative note, as comments from the administration over the prior weekend were taken negatively by markets (notably, those noting a disregard for auto manufacturer pain and possibilities of a recession, brought on by policies). Wednesday’s ‘Liberation Day’ announcement was done after the market close, but stock futures fell immediately afterward and carried over to a decline of nearly -5% on Thursday, one of the worst single days since the pandemic in 2020. The damage continued Friday, with markets down beyond -5%, as markets reacted to China’s retaliatory tariff of 34%. From the peak on Feb. 19, the S&P has fallen over -17% (up to nearly -20% if this morning’s futures are included). As noted separately, the market was prepared for tariffs to some extent, but these came out definitely stronger than expected.

Economic Update 10-28-2024

• Economic data for the week included a decline in overall durable goods, mixed results in housing sales, as well as higher continuing jobless claims, due to a variety of weather and labor issues.  
• Equities declined globally, with higher interest rates and less certainty about central bank rate easing looking forward. Bonds fell back along with rising yields at the longer end of the curve. Commodities gained, largely due to energy, despite a stronger dollar.

U.S. stocks lost ground for the first time in six weeks, as higher interest rates associated with an assumed more drawn-out Fed rate cut cycle and perhaps higher future deficits post-election weighed on sentiment. By sector, consumer discretionary experienced a percent gain (led by a 20%+ return for Tesla, upon better than expected earnings and vehicle sales projections) and a small gain for technology, while negativity was most pronounced in materials, industrials, and health care. Large cap fared better than small cap. Real estate fell about -2% upon the rise in yields.

At the September meeting, the U.S. Federal Reserve Open Market Committee decided to reduce the Fed funds rate by -0.50% to a new range of 4.75-5.00%. There was one voter dissent, where a member opted for only a quarter-percent cut.

The formal statement was updated to reflect the new easing bias, noting that inflation has simply “made further progress...but remains somewhat elevated.” Also noted was that the committee’s labor and inflation goals “are roughly in balance.” Later in the statement, labor was again mentioned in a reminder of the Fed’s dual mandate in “supporting maximum employment” in addition to its inflation objective. The new quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) put the Fed funds rate expectation at 4.4% for year-end 2024 (down from 5.1% in June), 3.4% for 2025, 2.9% for 2026 and 2027, while the anticipated long-term rate ticked up a tenth to 2.9%.

There hasn’t been this much mystery shrouding a policy change in some time, and surprise announcements have not been common in recent years. Before the meeting, CME Fed funds futures markets evolved toward the chances of a -0.50% cut at as high as 60%, and a -0.25% move at around 40%, after wavering between the two for much of the past month (wisdom of futures markets is correct again). Chances remain high for cuts in November and December, with odds pointing to a year-end rate of around 4.25%. The furthest-out estimate in Dec. 2025 shows the highest probabilities for Fed funds at around 3.00%.

Economic Update 6-03-2024

• For the short holiday week, economic data included U.S. GDP growth being downgraded a few tenths, continued improvement in lower PCE inflation, higher home prices, and improved consumer sentiment.
• Equities were mixed globally, with developed markets down a bit on net, while emerging markets fell further. Bonds were little changed domestically, while foreign markets saw mixed results. Commodities fell back across a variety of sectors.

U.S. stocks fell on the shortened week, but ended May with solid gains to offset weakness from the prior month. By sector, energy and utilities led the way with gains upward of 2%, while technology fell back by over -2% (as a positive week for some stocks was offset by weakness in Salesforce, Adobe, and Microsoft). Real estate also gained, with Friday’s ‘less bad’ inflation news providing a boost.